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| Monday, Feb 04, 2008 |
| Short of Century Setting Up in Crude at $95 Level |
| By John Netto |
| Monday, Feb 04, 2008 04:05 |
9:09 PM San Francisco - As traders being able to look at the markets from a sequential standpoint is critical in my mind to effectively anticipating market movement and being ready to execute when it comes time to the moment of truth. As a commodity pool operator, I spent a great part of the waking day scouring the market for opportunities and prepare myself for such events. In many cases, they don't occur as I consistently aim to put myself in a position of extreme advantage by letting the market come to me and work within a respective ebb and flow. Today on SniperScope, I pointed out to everyone the potential emergence of a massive right shoulder forming on Crude oil at the 94.80-95.38 level. There are a number of points of agreement that support this area that it is critical that traders be ready to act on the short side when/if the market arrives to this level. As you can see from the attached chart, we have an obvious right shoulder that has worked its way in at this level based on key pivot highs from early and late November. $94.80 is also a .618 retracement from the high near 100 down to the recent pivot low slightly above $85. We also have a key 1 x 1 projection setting up at 95.30 measuring the move from 85.42 to the high at 92.71, (7.29) off of the recent pivot low at 88.07 giving us a target at 95.36. Beyond that I rely heavily on my intuition and have been getting visions of a move like this setting up with just the right dynamics behind it. Seeing the key trend line in place from the low of August (67.88) to the low of December (85.37), that same trend line sets up near the 95 level if this market takes on an upward trajectory. A short term fib 1.382 expansion also sets up at this level literally giving traders the pocket aces of all crude shorts. My goal in the next 5 trading days is to play the move up to $95 and promptly reverse at this level and go short, riding a core position down to $80 a barrel, while trading around the rest all the way down. 
If anyone is going to the New York Traders Expo Feb 16-19, please stop by and see me as I will be competing in the live trading challenge.
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| Thursday, Dec 20, 2007 |
| Thursday: O.i. Trends + Gold Triangle Apex |
| By John Netto |
| Thursday, Dec 20, 2007 04:06 |
Treasury O.I. continued reduction: 10y O.I. shrunk 20% in a month! Current rally's upside is limited. Sugar O.I. is at new 850,000 record. Trading in 11 handle now, straight 15% gain from our original 11/30 post! Soybean complex and Wheat are taking a breather - while Corn did add 2% in new positions on new Bush ethanol plan! Energy products gained O.I. on their first up-day! NatGas continues to increase O.I., now on its way up! We suspect that specs shorted into the hole and will get caught on any wheather surprise. All metals O.I. remained animic; except Platinum's kept rising. Platinum traded not very far off our $1552 calculated target this morning. We are on high Shorting alert, while USDZAR begins to gain speed against S.African currency! We're in full awareness of at least $300 corrective drop to come, and possibly as much as $1000 total reward for shorts - should USDZAR accelerate next year! There is one caveat for stocks, that is applicable to the current environment. We (more to the point: equity markets) have enjoyed the longest period in modern history, of (at least, we were told) subdued inflation. What if that changed? Then operating margins would suffer. We got the hint that something was going amiss: when our trend indicators on XAU, GDX, ABX all flipped into down-trend a week ago, while the same Gold Cash and Futures gauges remained in up-trend. Then PPI and CPI came out, and it dawned: traders in-the-know held on to the bullion, while getting rid of their ownership in operating concerns! And the Fed will have a job cut out for them, to reign in inflation's ugly head. Gold's Daily chart triangle is inching closer toward its apex. Remember: once out of Triangle boundaries, price will keep moving a number of days. Stops are accummulating below $790 and above $809 GCG. |
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