The "tonnes in the trust" for the streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is once again increasing after the largest decline in the the fund's three and a half year history late last month

9.20am (NY) - by Anatoly Veltman - We've been patient to seriously commit to shorting energies through this week's rally. Despite the obvious sillyness of buying (actually buying!) the sixth straight big day of material advances, that follows 5/1 reversal from 110.30 candle - the longs still enjoyed profits into today's open. But Fridays are not for continuation of such sillyness - profit-takers always come out of the woodwork... So this "Friday" indicator is enough of itself in order to consider a short position. And then comes the mother of them all: an esteemed twenty-year-on-the-air CNBC staff member goes on a rant about "the current market environment in the energy sector, where even producers are holding out on their hedging commitments" ???? What the hexx?? Well, $126.20 pricing is enough of an incentive for us - so let us front-run "the reluctant producers". Daily bars are straddling the upper boundary of the three-month rising channel...

9.30am (NY) - by Anatoly Veltman - EUR reversal down from 1.5593 and reversal up from 1.5287 2-days later were the sharpest needle-point reversals, since trending off of the 1.6018 record! Predictably, GC shadows currency moves. Both energies and stocks are finding it difficult to add to their recent rallies. We expect all these general themes to hold today. Still on watch for any Open Interest changes that would defy recent trend of energies' build-up and Silver/Copper/Grain malaise...

10pm (NY) - by Anatoly Veltman - As planned, we had to book profits on remaining commodity longs, as EUR was approaching tough 1.56 area. Should CL defy odds and rally further, we would gladly trade it from the short side this time. In fact, it's hard to imagine approaching long strategies any time soon in $122.50 price environment - as our opinion is more toward $90 being much more balanced area in real-world physical marketplace. It's important to realize: currency markets have now entered trading affair mode - where any sharp multiday direction will be reversed no less sharply. Same applies to metals, by implication. We'll make sure to note any future comeback in SI Open Interest - it's been truly miserable of late. In energies and stocks: we'd prefer to seek out shorting opportunities - following couple of months of price advances to date

Crude oil may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years as growth in supply fails to keep pace with increased demand from developing nations, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Arjun N. Murti said in a report. New York-based Murti first wrote of a ``super spike'' in March 2005, when he said oil prices could range between $50 and $105

12.45pm (NY) - by Anatoly Veltman - Open Interest was up in CL, HO and RB; clearly, some spec shorts were caught in Fri rally and carried the contracts to new records today. We were buyers of all metals/energies, as EUR bottomed at 1.5362 following NFP (gosh, a smaller-than-expected jobs loss is mistaken for good news these days!) We've only taken profits in NG, SI and on record CP open today - as those contracts lagged in Open Interest. By tomorrow, we should be out of GC, PL and liquid energies as well. EUR and AUD are likely to follow today's strength, as tipped by C.O.T. (Commitment of Traders) report. CP sported Bullish C.O.T. Divergence, leading to today's unprecedented 10% higher spike to opening record! Yen showed Bearish C.O.T. Divergence: indicating total dis-inclination toward carry-trade. Was that the proverbial wall-of-worry, that stocks have been climbing?

12.05pm (NY) - by Anatoly Veltman - Platinum $8,100 from $9,450; Palladium $3,713 from $6,075! Open Interest confirmed long-liquidation on Thu commodity across the board sell-off: notably Copper 5% drop in both price/O.I. Interesting lone jump in O.I. was in 2y Note: where Short bets initiated reverse-FED strategy!

11.20am (NY) - by Anatoly Veltman - As anticipated, the good portion of "long-term" commodity investors, who were not willing to take profits during Q1 upside madness, are exiting in panic on this first day of May. Their portfolio portion, consisting of physical commodities, ETFs, commodity stocks plummeted in straight-line fashion - just as soon as EUR gave up some 4% of its record value! So today, with gold stocks off 25-30% from records touched 3/17 - rotation kicks in: out of commodities into traditional equities! Back on 3/17, Nikkei was off 40% in 7 months! China stocks bottomed 4/22 also some 40% off, in just 3 months! But commodity sector was taking money in, through good and bad times - under the banner of $ panic. First sign of $ firmness reversed the sentiment completely. Notable milestones today include GLD 83.44 (calendar 2008 lowest traded price)

Market Oracle - During the last major rally in gold prices, gold stocks made some great gains and investors such as yours truly were happy to take good profits on the gold mining companies we had bought over the summer doldrums . However we should have seen a much better performance.

(Platts) The recent gold sell-off could be the first time ETFs have affected the market, analysts believe, and many expect the price to continue falling. John Reade at UBS noted substantial selling from ETFs over the past week and believes it has driven the downturn. The analyst has cut his one-month forecast to $850 from $900. The majority of the losses have taken place in GLD, with another 350,000 oz of redemptions seen Tuesday, taking the fall over the past seven trading days top 1.3 million oz, according to UBS

8am (NY) - by Anatoly Veltman - Predictably, this morning I was simply beseiged by the shlemazel, who didn't recognize the sillyness of spot Gold's straight 7-mo run from $642 to $1032 3/17 and held on to their bullish Gold commitment, against the background of outrageous 95.75Y and 96.42CHF currency pricing. They were given another chance to get out at over $950 4/17, as EUR neared 1.60 - and didn't use it, either. Now, on a straight drop from $953 to $863 - it's all panic and recognition that "commodity story is over". My view here is quite simple: EUR is pulling back toward 1.5342 reversal level of 3/24 (and it will first lean on 1.5511 support of 4/3). Closer toward that level, EUR will again sharply reverse to the up. Gold will not be falling forever at straight line. Anticipating such EUR reversal, short-covering will ensue - right after the last commodity bull throws in the towel